Issue No. 792
Too Many Fish in the Sea
Pushing Back: Inside This Issue
In another unwelcome first for the airline industry, Emirates — the mighty airline of Dubai — suffered a half-year loss. Mercifully, it’s a pretty big cargo player, at a time when cargo is a major distinguishing factor between carriers with horrific losses, and carriers with losses somewhat more bearable. More worrisome to Emirates than its half-year red ink? Its future ability to fill giant planes.
Norwegian’s problems are more existential — will it survive the winter? Air Canada hasn’t gotten much love from its government but still might. American and Southwest said the run-up to the presidential election, combined with the latest Covid spike, is slowing demand momentum for the final two months of 2020. That awful 2020.
Southwest is separately adding yet another new sunshine spot in Florida, as United returns to the transcon market from New York JFK. Hong Kong and Singapore have their travel bubble set to open, eliminating the need for traveler quarantines. On the other hand, travel restrictions are tightening again in Europe and the U.S. The U.K., for one, doesn’t want anyone to leave the country for non-essential reasons this month. More U.S. states including California are asking people to self-quarantine for two weeks if they arrive from another state.
Most major airlines have now reported their summertime financial results. But there’s still some earnings action left. Britain’s easyJet will show its numbers this week. So will Panama’s Copa. Also, executives from leading airlines and suppliers from around the world will present at an online forum this week jointly hosted by Skift and Dallas-Fort Worth airport. In the meantime, news on the vaccine front is encouraging. And governments are slowly accepting passenger Covid testing as an alternative to quarantines. Nevertheless, meaningful demand recovery seems at best still months away.
Verbulence
“Despite all these challenges, now more than ever, we have absolutely no doubt that the airline industry will recover. The timing of recovery, I leave to your own crystal balls.”
Air Lease Corp. CEO John Plueger
Earnings
July-September 2020 (3 Months)
- Air Canada: -$515m/-$760m*; -129%
- Norwegian: -$105m/-$292m*; -151%
- Garuda: -$368m/-$431m*; -156%
- SpiceJet: -$15m/-$49m*; -36%
- Cebu Pacific: -$113m/-$145m*; -336%
- Jeju Air: -$56m; -118%
- Air Arabia: -$12m; -20%
- Air Astana: -$22m/; -18%
- Chorus/Jazz: $15m/-$25m*; -4%
April-September 2020 (6 Months)
- Emirates: -$3.4b; -79%
*Net result in USD/*Net result excluding special items/ Operating margin
Skift Aviation Forum November 19
Join us for the inaugural Skift Aviation Forum, held online in partnership with Dallas Ft. Worth International Airport. Guests include Air Lease Corp. Executive Chairman Steven Udvar-Hazy, American Airlines President Robert Isom, Southwest CEO Gary Kelly, and United Chief Commercial Officer Andrew Nocella. You can check out the latest list of confirmed speakers here. Registration is free for annual Airline Weekly subscribers.