Issue No. 775
Holding Out for a Hero?
Pushing Back: Inside This Issue
Like a damsel in distress, the world is waiting for its superhero. Not Batman. But a vaccine, which scientists say will likely come soon—before the end of the year, perhaps. Even if mid-2021 before a magic bullet is produced, delivered, and administered, airlines can at least start seeing the day when the world will be ready to fly again.
How fast will demand return? Will it take years to recover from all the economic damage? It’s only the third quarter of 2020, after all, and things could get a lot worse for six months, before they get better.
Some airlines might not make it. South African Airways, for one, is fading fast. Israel’s El Al is desperate for government help. Most, however, will survive, with government help or, absent that, help from bankruptcy protection. Aeromexico is the latest to enter bankruptcy, joining a parade of other Latin carriers.
TAP Air Portugal, American, and SAS are a few of the latest government aid recipients. Virgin Atlantic, for its part, denied public aid, seems positioned to survive with help from the private sector, including perhaps Delta. Elsewhere, survival entails lots of cutting. Ryanair is cutting British pilot pay, American is cutting international routes (notably from Los Angeles), Air France is cutting jobs, Norwegian is cutting aircraft orders… and so on. The vaccine can’t come soon enough.
It’s time for Europe to go back flying again. It’s time to reboot Europe’s tourism industry.Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary
Mondays With Skift Airline Weekly
William Swelbar, research engineer at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Center for International Aviation, joins Skift's Brian Sumers for a discussion of his latest study, "Landed in a Pandemic, Departing in a Recession." The livestream is at 11:30 a.m. Eastern on July 6, 2020, and registration is free for subscribers. We'll take your questions as they come in. Can't make it? We'll post a replay later in the week and an audio podcast at airlineweekly.com.
January-March (3 months)
- TAP Air Portugal: -$439m/-$189m*; -27%
- El Al: -$140m/-$124m; -29%
*Net result in USD/*Net result excluding special items/ Operating margin