Issue Summary

A major merger between Korean Air and its weaker rival Asiana signals — perhaps — a new wave of airline industry consolidation. If so, the international landscape could see an easing of competitive pressures akin to what happened after a wave of U.S. airline consolidation from 2008 to 2016. What followed there was a half-decade of double-digit industry profit margins (with a big assist from cheap fuel). United, for one, relishes the prospect of consolidation on international routes, which in this case would get an assist from mass widebody retirements (and fuel too if prices stay anywhere near their current levels).